DINAMIKA STRATEGI HEDGING INDONESIA DALAM MENGHADAPI POLARISASI GEOPOLITIK AS–TIONGKOK DI KAWASAN INDO-PASIFIK: MENAKAR BATAS OTONOMI STRATEGIS DAN SENTRALITAS ASEAN
Abstract
The intensifying hegemonic rivalry between the United States and China in the Indo-Pacific has entangled Southeast Asian states in geopolitical and geo-economic polarization. Rejecting binary alignments between Western minilateral alliances (AUKUS and Quad) and China's Belt and Road Initiative, Indonesia has enacted a strategic hedging posture to safeguard strategic autonomy and uphold ASEAN centrality. Employing a qualitative descriptive-explanatory method grounded in Cheng-Chwee Kuik's hedging framework, Structural Neorealism, and Constructivism, this study investigates Indonesia's foreign policy trajectory from 2014 to 2024. The findings reveal that Indonesia's hedging operates across four concurrent pillars: economic pragmatism through Chinese investment absorption, institutional diversification with Western partners (IPEF and OECD accession), defensive maritime modernization (indirect balancing) in the North Natuna Sea, and normative leadership via the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP). However, the efficacy of this posture is increasingly constrained by domestic elite policy fragmentation, Beijing's persistent gray-zone maneuvers in the Natuna EEZ, and eroding ASEAN internal cohesion. This article concludes that preserving Indonesia's strategic autonomy necessitates domestic maritime governance unification and sovereign defense industrial capability
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